Wednesday, August 2, 2017

Patriot Bowl Outlook


One of the coolest things about the VA Patriot Summer Kickball League is the format.  While all ten teams will be playing in a bowl game, only the top four will qualify for the Tapps Bowl. Due to the nature of the draft, there is a lot of parity amongst the field and every game counts. One bad week could be the difference between playing for a championship or playing in the Manute Bowl.

With a week left in the season, I'm going to take a stab at breaking down each team's playoff outlook. Who's in the pole position and who's on the outside looking in?

BOWL GAMES

  • 9v10: THE TOILET BOWL
  • 7v8: THE DOG BOWL
  • 5v6: THE MANUTE BOWL
  • 1v4: THE SALAD BOWL (Championship Qualifier)
  • 2v3: THE CEREAL BOWL (Championship Qualifier)
  • THE TAPPS BOWL (Winner of the Salad & Cereal Bowls) 

NOTE ABOUT SCENARIOS: Don't take these as gospel. With so many teams packed in the middle, this turned out to be a more complicated task than I imagined. So, this could be wildly inaccurate but still putting it out there for fun. 
NOTE NUMBER 2: I'm not even considering the possibilities of forfeits and the penalties associated with each because that complicates it further. Everyone should just keep showing up! 
NOTE NUMBER 3: I didn't really take ties into consideration either. Too many variables for my small brain to calculate
NOTE NUMBER 4: After the first three notes, why are you still reading this? 

WE DO KICKIN RIGHT (0-4-2)
WDKR (when you put it in acronym form it sounds like a radio station call sign) has yet to earn a victory. If they manage to win on Wednesday, it won't be enough to get them out of the bottom two. We Do Kickin Right will be clucking their way to the Toilet Bowl.
Remaining Opponents: F Your Couch (2-3)

#OHMYGUSH (0-4-2)
Like WDKR, #OhMyGush has yet to earn a win through 6 games. And also like the Kickins if they win their week 5 matchup, it will still put them at least one game out of 8th. The Toilet Bowl matchup is set between the two. The only thing they're playing for this week is home field advantage and important momentum going into bowl week.
Remaining Opponents: Prestige Worldwide (3-2)

F YO COUCH... LONG LIVE CHARLIE MURPHY (2-3)
After starting out the season hot, the Couches are on a 3 game skid. If they can reverse their momentum and sweep the double header tonight, they can still sneak into the playoffs. However, they'll need some help. At 4-3, they can make it in if Prestige Worldwide loses both games tonight. If Prestige Worldwide splits their doubleheader tonight and ends up 4-3, they will hold the tie breaker over the Couches due to their 18-10 week 4 shootout win. So in that scenario, the Couches will be rooting for a Kitty Sprinkles and Under Contract losses. So, yeah, they need to win out and have some other chips pieces fall in place to get in. Now, if you'll excuse me. I'm gonna go put water in Buck Nasty's Mama's dish.



Remaining Opponents: We Do Kickin Right (0-4-2); The Brunch Life (2-2-1)

RING POP SQUAD (2-3-1)
RPS is a squad that has been decimated with injuries to key positions and despite all that has been competitive. A win tonight against Under Contract will bring them to .500, but it won't be enough to make the top four. From what I can see, the top four will need at least a .571 win percentage to get in so it looks like the Ring Poppers may have to set their sights on the Manute Bowl.

EDIT: As Brian pointed out on Facebook, there is a very small chance RPS could get into the 4th spot but they would need A LOT of help. If they defeat UC, they will be 3-3-1. RPS would need F Yo Couch to lose to We Do Kickin Right. RPS would need Brunch Life to beat PWW and lose against F Yo Couch. They would need PWW to also draw against #OhMyGush. That would create a 3-way tie for fourth. In that case, it would go to tie breakers which would be runs allowed. Brunch Life currently has the edge with 6 less runs allowed to date. So, yeah... It's possible but I the odds don't look good. 
Remaining Opponents: Under Contract (2-2-2)

UNDER CONTRACT SPONSORED BY THE DAVID TORTOLINI REALTY GROUP (2-2-2)
In order to make the playoffs, Under Contract needs to start by taking care of business against RPS. At 3-2-2, they'll be in the hunt. The other teams that they could potentially be tied with are Brunch Life, Kitty Sprinkles, F Yo Couch, Revenge of the Nerds, and Prestige. They hold head to head wins over the Couches, Prestige WW, but lost to Kitty Sprinkes. A tie breaker between Brunch and UC may come down to runs allowed, in which case Under Contract has a large advantage. The Tortolinis have allowed 16 runs in 6 games so far. Brunch Life has allowed 33, with two more games remaining so unless things really get out of control, Under Contract should have the edge if they are tied in the standings. If the Nerds drop both of their games tonight, they still have the advantage over UC due to a week 2 victory. But, in short, I think Under Contract mostly controls their destiny.
Remaining Opponents: Ring Pop Squad (2-3-1)


My reaction when I sit down to try to do the math.

THE BRUNCH LIFE CHOSE ME (2-2-1)
If they win out, they are in. Should they lose either game, the picture gets a little more muddy (see the capsules above for PWW, Under Contract, and F Yo Couch) especially considering the two teams they play tonight are right there in the hunt with them.
Remaining Opponents: Prestige Worldwide (3-2), F Yo Couch (2-3)

PRESTIGE WORLDWIDE (3-2)
Another team that wins and they're in. That 6:30 game between Brunch Life and PWW is basically a playoff game in itself because of this.
Remaining Opponents: The Bunch Life (2-2-1); #OhMyGush (0-4-2)

PWW if they beat Brunch Life and then lose to #OhMyGush.

KITTY SPRINKLES (3-1-2)
These cats are well positioned to make the playoffs, controlling their own destiny. A win or a tie will put them at 4-1-2 and pretty much lock them into the 3rd spot.  Honestly, if the Nerds and Kitties had no ethics, they'd agree to play to a tie tonight and give them both a spot. But they're competitors, so I know they'll give it their best. Also know that if this game does end in a tie, there will be an independent prosecutor assigned to investigate any collusion.
Remaining Opponents: Revenge of the Nerds (4-1)

REVENGE OF THE NERDS (4-1)
A win or tie in any of their games secure their final four spot. If they get swept, they will fall into that .571 quagmire. They likely will still squeak by as they hold tie breakers over the majority of teams, however, they would avoid a lot of stress by winning out.
Remaining Opponents: Kitty Sprinkles (3-1-2); Who Runs the World (5-1)

A win or a tie punches the Nerds ticket to the big dance.

WHO RUNS THE WORLD? (5-1)
Finally, an easy one. Who Runs the World clinches the top seed with a win or tie. With a loss, they may fall to 2nd. They (We!) are the only team to clinch a playoff berth.
Remaining Opponents: Revenge of the Nerds (4-1)


<insert heart eyed smiley face emojis>

So there you have it. My best stab at it. Feel free to point out any gaps in the Facebook comments. But most of all, good luck to everyone tonight!



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